Dazi Usa, domenica incontro Trump-von der Leyen in Scozia. Cosa sappiamo sui negoziati

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Introduzione

Donald Trump e la presidente della commissione europea Ursula von der Leyen si incontreranno per il loro primo bilaterale ufficiale durante la seconda presidenza del tycoon, mentre i tecnici di Washington e di Bruxelles sono al rush finale dell’estenuante trattativa sui dazi. Il faccia a faccia avverrà domani, domenica 27 luglio a Turnberry, in Scozia.

I nodi da sciogliere restano molti e il tempo stringe: dal 1° agosto, in caso di mancato accordo, scatterebbero le tariffe americane sui beni importati dall’Europa, mentre quelle europee sui beni statunitensi partirebbero dal 7 agosto. Trump si mostra positivo – “L’accordo sui dazi con l’Ue sarà quello più grande di tutti. Non vedo l’ora di incontrare Ursula von der Leyen, è una donna molto rispettata” – e l’intesa sembra ormai matura. Ma sul suo destino finale pesa ancora l’imprevedibilità del presidente Usa. 

Dazi, verso intesa Usa-Ue per tariffa base al 15%

Il patto a cui Stati Uniti e Unione europea hanno lavorato nelle ultime settimane ricalca quello già siglata da Washington con il Giappone, con una tariffa base al 15% a regolare le importazioni dall’Europa. Non un’aliquota bassissima, ma ritenuta quantomeno sopportabile dalle cancellerie europee. Lo schema include la clausola della ‘nazione più favorita’ (Mfn) – garanzia di parità e non discriminazione nel quadro della World Trade Organization – che stabilisce una tariffa media reciproca del 4,8% nel commercio transatlantico.

Per approfondire: Usa, come va l’inflazione con i dazi di Trump: ecco quali sono gli effetti sui prezzi

Le tariffe su acciaio e alluminio

Se sembra ormai dato per certo che scatterà il dazio al 15%, tutto è ancora in evoluzione per quanto riguarda un’altra importante partita, quella su acciaio e alluminio, per cui Trump non è intenzionato a venirsi incontro. Prima di decollare per la Scozia, parlando con i cronisti, ha dato l’impressione di voler frenare l’ottimismo degli ultimi giorni: “Su acciaio e alluminio non c’è molto margine di manovra”- Tradotto, sui primi due settori colpiti dai dazi americani la percentuale resterà del 50%. Un pugno duro che non rappresenta una novità: già nel 2018 Trump applicò tariffe rispettivamente del 25% e del 10% su acciaio e alluminio, provocando una reazione a catena: le contromisure continentali per 2,8 miliardi di euro colpirono prodotti simbolici come bourbon, Levi’s e Harley-Davidson. Lo stesso arsenale che Bruxelles ha inserito anche nella sua prima lista di contro-dazi pronta a scattare il 7 agosto.

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